Other duties as assigned

Sometimes I need a change of pace, so I take on my other roles of Chief Optimist and Chief Pessimist.

Yes, pessimism as peaked, you heard it from the CO here first.

No, poverty has not disappeared nor will it ever, until the hearts of all mankind change as the CP always says.

So, there you have it.

Where’s the beef some may ask.

CO: The dow has probably been near its low, even though it may be there again in the future. Gold has been near it’s high, even though it may be near there again in the future.

CP: So what does that mean to MSA (main stream America)? For those fortuante to have stocks they will not return to their highs let alone go higher in anytime frame that matters. We seem to be on track to lose half a million jobs monthly for the forseable future, with a positive jobs report, an actual increase seemingly impossible in the next year or so.

CO: New businesses are being created daily that are not counted because most of them are involutarily created, which one can choose to say is a negative thing but some of those businesses will succeed, creating wealth for the owners and jobs for others that will be included in the first postive jobs numbers. Creative entrepreneurialism (check that spelling) is at work. Necessity is the mother of invention, something like that.

CP: A smal minority of those businesses will succeed. Most will be slaughtered because they do not have good ideas, or enough capital or enough talent to execute well enough. It is really tough to start a business,today or ever.

CO: Some of them will succeed to some extent, better than nothing, then the owners can get a better job when some become available. Business cycles have many things in common, and this gigantic downturn will end at some point even though it had it unique characteristics

CP: Yeah, like unbridled greed and mismanagement and lousy regulation.

CO: No, those are usually present even during the “good times.”

CP: If those obvious elements are not the cause, who do you blame.

CO: Political conflicts of interest. Which by the way, are also present during the “good times”. The sensationalism of the press, media, old, new all of it by any name or specific technology contributed to excesses, which by the way are also present during the “good times.”

CP: Who has political conflicts of interest?

CO: Everyone.

CP: You are losing relevance with each new contribution to this discussion.

CO: Look at it this way. A perfect storm has a lot of ingredients.

CP: So?

CO: This line of discussion will be continued to a future post, gotta see what Larry Summers has to say this morning. He has been in hiding and I think he will respond at least indirectly to Wen Jibao’s unusual public message, expressing concern about the value of US Treasuries he needs to buy so we can continue to support his Unbalanced Export strategy and our Unbalanced Borrow strategy. That will be included in my future post, as it figures in with the this Perfect Storm.

The Saudi’s have lowered their output to below 8 million barrels a day to keep prices near the $40 level.